Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels as oil remains above $100

LONDON — Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to only seven vessels as attacks across Middle Eastern shipping routes continue to squeeze energy supplies and keep global oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Preliminary ship-tracking data showed seven vessel transits on Thursday, down from 11 a day earlier and far below a recent 10-day average of 15. Before the Iran war began, the waterway typically handled around 125 commodity vessels and roughly one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied-natural-gas supplies.

Brent crude was trading around $104.18 a barrel at 11:32 GMT on Friday, down more than 3% on the day but still heading toward a weekly gain of more than 8%. US West Texas Intermediate was around $99.52. Prices eased after reports that regional foreign ministers were considering a temporary arrangement with Iran over Hormuz shipping, although Reuters said it had not independently verified that diplomatic report.

The supply picture is becoming increasingly difficult. Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near Hormuz on Wednesday after the United States struck five Iranian oil tankers, while Tehran's Revolutionary Guards warned that it would intensify its response to further attacks.

At the same time, Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb are threatening an alternative Red Sea route increasingly important to Gulf producers trying to bypass Hormuz.

The International Energy Agency has substantially worsened its outlook. It now expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with a previous forecast of around 4%, as normal Gulf flows are pushed further into the future. Saudi supply alone fell to around 6 million bpd in August.

Consumers are already feeling the consequences. The US national average diesel price exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time, according to GasBuddy figures cited by Reuters. Diesel markets are particularly vulnerable because Middle East disruptions are combining with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refinery capacity.

So although crude prices have retreated from this week's peaks, there is little evidence yet that the underlying shipping crisis has been solved.

Berean News Priority: URGENT